Different Tournament, New Manager - Same Lack of Imagination

I'm flabbergasted at the omission of Trent Alexander-Arnold and it may point to a conservatism in Tuchel that's going to cost England this summer.

Trent is probably England's most naturally gifted footballer. There is no other player in this country who can do what he does — his touch, the range of passing, the ability to pick a lock from deep with a single ball or to get to the byeline and drill a low cross for a teammate to run onto, he can break down opponents. He won the Premier League with Liverpool last season, and on this season's form it seems he's certainly missed at Anfield.

Yes, he's had a difficult first season at Real Madrid. New club, new league, new language, a string of niggly injuries disrupting his rhythm. That happens. It happened to plenty of players who went on to define tournaments. The idea that a transitional club season — at one of the most demanding environments in world football — should cost him his place in an England World Cup squad is not just harsh, it's tactically illiterate.

Djed Spence has had a decent season. Solid, reliable, a good Premier League wingback. But there is no serious football conversation in which Spence is in this squad and Trent Alexander-Arnold isn't. WhoScored ratings across their combined league and Champions League appearances this season put Trent at 6.71 to Spence's 6.50 — that's in no way remarkable for either player, but when we acknowledge Trent's had a tricky season in a new country, whilst Spence has had his best season to date and yet still sometimes struggles to start in a team that came 17th in the league, this decision is just ridiculous. I think it's the one that comes back to haunt Tuchel. Spence won't be noticed, whilst Trent will be sorely missed.

Whilst on the Trent...

Morgan Gibbs-White plays his football on the banks of the River Trent at Nottingham Forest, and like his geographical namesake, he's been flowing this season. Fifteen league goals in a struggling side. Thirty-seven appearances from thirty-eight league games. Consistency, goals, leadership in a team that needed him every week — the kind of season that, at a bigger club, would have made his omission front page news.

The argument against him is understandable, even if I think it's wrong. He's not versatile in the way Gordon, Eze or Rogers are — he can't credibly play wide, which makes him harder to fit in a squad built around flexibility. And stylistically, he's similar to Bellingham. Same physical profile, same instinct to arrive late into the box, same preference for operating in the ten role.

But that argument should cut both ways. England are almost certainly going to set up with Bellingham in the ten, pulling strings between midfield and Kane. That's the plan, and when it works, England are as good as anyone. But what's the contingency if Bellingham picks up an injury, serves a suspension, or simply hits a run of poor form mid-tournament? You bring on a 10 who lacks the physicality or a winger and reshape the whole team? Or, you bring on a player who does exactly the same job, in exactly the same way, and the system doesn't miss a beat?

Gibbs-White isn't just in form. He's the perfect insurance policy for England's number 10 position. The fact that his best position overlaps with Bellingham's shouldn't be a reason to leave him out — it should be the very reason he's on that plane. Tournament football punishes the sides that don't plan for the unexpected.

The Smart One

Not everything in this squad selection deserves scrutiny.

Ivan Toney's inclusion raised eyebrows given his time in the Saudi Pro League, and fairly so — it's difficult to know how to weigh 32 goals from 32 games in a competition that exists largely outside serious European football conversation. But Toney's value to this squad isn't about the Saudi numbers. It's about two very specific things.

First, the penalties. In knockout football, when a game is heading to a shootout, you want Ivan Toney on the pitch. His record from the spot is exceptional and his composure in those moments is the kind of thing you simply can't manufacture in training. Tuchel knows that. Getting him on in the final five minutes of extra time is a tactic, not a gamble.

Second, and this one is underwritten: if England win their group as expected then their route takes them to a quarter-final in Miami in July. The heat and humidity there will be significant, and Toney's acclimatisation after a season in the Middle East may give him an edge over England's other striking options when conditions are at their most brutal. It's a small detail, but smart squads are built on small details.

Same Old Story

Two of England's most interesting footballers are watching this tournament from home. One of them is arguably the most gifted player this country has produced in a generation, whilst Gibbs-White was likely chomping at the bit to prove himself at the top table. I imagine Tuchel doesn't trust Trent to start and is fearful of the optics of leaving him on the bench — so he's fronted it by leaving him at home entirely, rather than managing the situation and getting to call upon Trent's unique skills when needed.

Tuchel has probably given himself an easier life with this call. But unfortunately that's because he'll likely have fewer games to manage — as England go out in the quarter-final whilst crying out for a creator to open a low block.